As the Uruguay belongs to the Mercosur customs union

The guerrillas are back. After the Sandinista Daniel Ortega, that the Nicaragua was brought to end power 2006, José Mujica, candidate of the left coalition, won Sunday's first round of the presidential election in Uruguay with 47,49 of the vote. And has good chance of becoming the next President of the country, even though it must still fight a second round tight against former Liberal President Luis Alberto Lacalle (28.53) on 29 November.

This is not a surprise. Nicknamed "el pepe" Mujica, who founded the urban guerrilla warfare of the far left of the Tupamaros in the 1960s, before being imprisoned 15 years during the military dictatorship (1973-1985), was the odds-on favorite in the polls. At the age of seventy-four, this former veteran peasant took of roundness in every sense of the term. His guerrillas filed weapons at the end of the dictatorship and today it openly aims to be the Lula to the Uruguay, showing his admiration for the Brazilian President, now holding ex-syndicaliste of a moderate left.

Play the continuity

In fact, "el pepe" has any interest in playing the continuity. Because it is largely served by the popularity of outgoing President Tabaré Vázquez (60). It has allowed the left five years ago to power for the first time in the history of the country but the Uruguayan Constitution forbids to represent for a second term.

Tabaré Vázquez is his popularity to the quality of its economic and social balance. The Uruguay is one of the few countries of Latin America to have escaped this year to a recession, high rates of growth after the previous years, culminating the year 8.9 last. The index of poverty of small agricultural country, wedged between Argentina and Brazil, fell from 26 to 20.5 between 2007 and 2008, and unemployment has been divided by two in five years (7.6 last year). Tabaré Vázquez has also the creation of the income tax, the equipment of quite exceptional schools in laptops and societal advances such as the creation of a civil union for homosexuals, even from the right to adoption. Before the second tower, Mujica will therefore all to not appear more radical than Vázquez, promising even remind the former Minister of the economy Danilo Astori, more liberal than him (in exchange for his support).

Because if he has a comfortable on his rival, the part is not yet won. In the second round, Lacalle can count on the support of the other candidate of centre-right, Pedro Bordaberry (colorado party), third arrived with 17 of the vote. An unexpected score for the son of former dictator Juan Maria Bordaberry, who may also deprive the left side of the majority it held in the Congress. Estimates of the results of the legislative elections also held Sunday, the coalition of left - Frente amplio - would match with the right to the Senate and would be even slightly values in the lower House. But the results are so tight that "the majority may switch from one side to the other" on the disputed votes, according to a member of the Electoral Court. Lacalle, turn right, advocates a reform of the State but promises not to touch social programs of Vázquez, preferred by the population.

The issue of this election is far from negligible in a region whose political equilibria are changing rapidly. As the Uruguay belongs to the Mercosur customs union.