4 in 2010 and I think it will be achieved

The major economies are now out of the recession. What should be expected in 2010

Jean-Hervé Lorenzi: the crisis is born of three major macro economic issues: the explosion of Monetary liquidity, volatility in the price of raw materials and transfer of activity to emerging countries. But these three subjects are always current. Can therefore speak of declining output, but the out of the crisis is still before us.

Patrick Artus: We are in economies under infusion. Public interventions explain the return of growth, but around the world, except in China, the characteristics of a normal recovery are not meet: there is no resumption of credit, investment companies or increase in wage income again. We have a few quarters where it goes better with the intervention of the States, although this will not cling to a true recovery.

What is your view on the French situation

Patrick Artus: The Government table on a growth of 1.4 in 2010 and I think it will be achieved. But behind this figure, the growth will be very hit. Most will be made in the first quarter. As a result, the growth will be extremely low, with very few household consumption and not for business investment.

Jean-Hervé Lorenzi: in the second half, the French Government, like others, will maintain its policy of support and combat a rise in unemployment which will still be real. If we take strong political measures, the second half step will be very uncertain and difficult. In developed countries, could attend a stabilization of the economies of very low levels. It is for the French prepare for hard times that the circle of economists organizes at this time a broad public debate in partnership with France Info and Orange.

But what margins of manoeuvre left to the States

Patrick Artus: If you remove the budgetary stimulus, we run to the disaster. But, given the extent of public deficits, the margins of budgetary manoeuvre are void. And there is no more margin for monetary manoeuvre... Macroeconomics, it is finished. Need to make the microeconomics and find ways to mobilize private savings. France, it is for example undertake tax reforms to stimulate consumer spending and create jobs.

Jean-Hervé Lorenzi: this is not the time to reduce the deficits. Especially when you see the low rates to which the States finance. 2011 will see tensions on tax policies to limit the public deficit. In France, the General review of public policies (RGPP) allowed a strict expenditure management, but is not with this that we will find 50 billion savings here in 2013. Must be completely flat back the organisation of public spending by facilitating the mobility of officials and removing redundancies within the powers of local communities.

Nicolas Sarkozy believes that unemployment is forecast to decline in the coming months. There do you

Jean-Hervé Lorenzi: in 2010, many jobs are still likely to be lost. Beyond the monthly fluctuations (he declined in December, according to figures published yesterday evening, Editor's note), unemployment will therefore continue to increase. It must be that the Government act quickly, in particular addressing youth unemployment. A country that does not use its youth is a country that is dying.

Patrick Artus: Adjustment of employment has been much slower in France in the US. And if companies believe not a robust recovery, the trend of unemployment will not be reversed. Among the me safe to take, should lower the cost of the work by reforming social security payments. To address youth unemployment, should ask large companies to take their share of responsibility and to integrate them, either by internships, alternating training or other devices. Rather than taxing the banks, force them to take young people in training!

Do you see the appearance of bubbles

Patrick Artus: Course. The excess liquidity in the origin of the crisis are still there. We are also witnessing a bubble on the raw materials, such as oil and steel. There is also a bubble on the stock markets in emerging countries. On the bond bubble, it currently States to finance their deficits in good balance. We are therefore always in logics of bubble even though it is profoundly unhealthy to rest the world economy on this.

Is the will of the g-20 reform the financial system still strong

Jean-Hervé Lorenzi: we were many we should welcome the creation of the g-20. Remains that, in a year, the only tangible result was the creation of the Council of financial stability while secondary progress been made on bonuses and tax havens. But the recent speech of Barack Obama Bank recovery process for the reorganization of the global financial system.